All dates/times are AEST. All lines, totals and prices correct at the time of posting.
Unbelievably we are up to Week 6 of the CFB season already. Quite a few tough match ups this week and a few games which involve teams who will be desperate to bounce back after poor recent performances to try and get their seasons moving in the right direction before it’s too late!
With AAC teams involved in a total of 7 games this weekend, I’ve managed to find 5 spots which will hopefully result in a positive outcome for me! My thoughts, write-ups and predictions below.
FRIDAY 5th OCTOBER
10am Houston v Tulsa: Tulsa (1-3) actually won this match up (in Houston as well) last year, but feel Houston (3-1) are a stronger offensive team this year with D’Eriq King already having thrown for nearly 1,200 yards and 15 TD’s and as such, I just can’t see them losing this year. Houston have only played 2 games at home so far this season however have outscored their opponents a combined 115 to 32 and feel they will continue to roll in front of their home crowd.
My prediction for this game is Houston -17.5 (2u @ $1.90). **This is my best bet for Week 6** = LOSS
SUNDAY 7th OCTOBER
2am Cincinnati v Tulane: Cincinnati have been a bit of a surprise packet for me starting the season 5-0. Tulane are 2-3, however had a very impressive win in Week 5 against a Memphis team who are certainly not as good on the road as they have been at home. Which makes this a bit of a difficult match up to read. I’m leaning Cincinnati -7, as I feel the Tulane number (+7) is slightly lower than it should be because of their win last week. Whilst there is no doubting it was a good win, as mentioned Memphis aren’t as good on the road as they have been at home so I’m putting a little less weighting on this than I would have otherwise. Also, Cincinnati have the bye next week and would be VERY keen to go into the break 6-0.
My prediction for this game is Cincinnati -7 (1u @ $1.90) = WINNER!
2am Temple v ECU: Temple (2-3) have probably been the biggest ‘disappointment’ of the AAC so far this season for mine. They are however -11.5 point favourites at home against ECU (2-2) in this match up. Temple will be disappointed with their first half performance on the road last week when they gave up 31 points to Boston College. ECU on the other hand will be disappointed they go themselves into the position, however buoyed with a last minute (FG) victory against Old Dominion. I think both teams have something to prove in this match up and expect it could be tight in the first half, but am hoping it turns into a bit of a shoot out and points flow in the second half.
My prediction for this game is Over 55 (1u @ $1.90) = PUSH
5.30am Navy @ Air Force: Navy (2-2) travel to Air Force (1-3) for this Week 6 game. Both teams had really tough losses last start and will be looking to bounce back here. The ledger is 2 wins 2 losses for each over the last 4 years and with both of these teams being a bit up and down this year I this could be a game with plenty of ups and downs for both teams. If I had the time I think there is a huge “live” bet opportunity here. I expect the game to be pretty tight and wouldn’t be surprised to see both teams hit over $2 at some point throughout the game.
No official prediction in this game for me.
5.30am USF @ UMass: South Florida (4-0) look to continue their perfect start to the season as they go on the road for the first time this season and travel to UMass (2-4) for this Week 6 match up. USF have actually been winning games on the defensive side of the ball having given up on 1 TD in each of their last 2 games and 2 in their season opener vs Elon. The blip for their D was in Week 2 vs GT when they allowed 5 TD’s, however they were lucky that it was a total shoot out with their offense prevailing in a high scoring 49-38 victory. UMass have played 6 games this season and are averaging just over 35 points per game, however they have scored over 70% of their points in just 3 games and expect that they won’t be putting up big numbers against this USF D. Furthermore, the UMass Head Coach has been stood down for this week after comments made in their last game against Ohio. Whilst teams at this level should be able to continue to operate and carry out a game plan without a Head Coach physically standing on the sidelines, I expect some level of interruption to their mindset. South Florida haven’t been explosive on Offense this season and whilst I expect them to win and probably win this game comfortably, I think the point total which has been set at 71 is a bit high, especially given my thoughts no the UMass attack.
My prediction for this game is Under 71 (1u @ $1.90) = LOSS
9am UCF v SMU: UCF (4-0) riding a nation high 17 game winning streak, host an SMU (2-3) team who after starting the season slowly (with an unexpected loss to UNT then tough match ups against TCU and Michigan) found the winning feeling with an OT victory over Navy two weeks ago then found some real offensive power defeating a weak Houston Baptist (63-27) last week. UCF just keep sweeping all before them (with QB Milton throwing for on average over 300 yards and 3 TDs per game) and I probably expect they beat SMU in this game. However, I’m not sure it will be as easy as they hope. I think SMU will try and keep it tight and hopefully we see a low scoring game.
My prediction for this game is Under 73 (1u @ $1.90) = WINNER!
9am Memphis v UConn: UConn (1-4) continue to disappoint fans with a woeful 49-7 loss last week against Cincinnati. Memphis (3-2) will be desperate to get home (where they are 3-0 compared to 0-2 on the road this season) after what they would consider a disappointing loss to Tulane last week. Memphis are a different team at home and I do expect they bounce back, however the line has been set at 35 points and whilst they probably do cover that at home against UConn, I’m still happy to sit and watch in this instance.
No official prediction in this game for me.