During the 2017-2018 NBA season I started creating a program or system to try and give me an edge when betting on NBA games. It’s fairly simplistic (compared to quite a few others who ‘cap’ NBA on Twitter), however it takes into consideration how teams perform both offensively and defensively at home and on the road. It makes allowances for how teams have performed recently and over the season as a whole and allocates different weightings to each stat depending on importance. I also created different levels of confidence based on different ‘hurdles’ (how much a prediction is likely to/or unlikely to cover a line or total).
Again, it’s not overly complex, however by the back half of last year the higher level confidence games were quite fruitful. This season, I’m going to be selective and post only the highest rating selections here for tracking purposes. Some days there won’t be any selections, some days there will be one, some days there maybe more than one – it’ll be based purely on the numbers generated by the system. Good luck whether you choose to tail or fade.
YTD NBA Model Predictions 10-16-1 = -7.09u
15/11/2018 – It was a sweat the entire way, thanks to both teams hitting over 50% of shots – including from outside 3 point range for the Nuggs – for most of the first 3 quarters, but they faded late and the System hits it’s only suggested play today. With some of tomorrows games lines and totals already out, I’m looking to lock one in early. Bulls are 3-3 straight up in 1st quarters on the road and haven’t trailed at quarter time by more than 3 points. Celts are 2-1-1 straight up in 1st quarters at home and have only lead by more than 3 points once. Will review all lines/totals again in the morning for any movement, but keen to lock this one in now. Good luck and happy punting.
1u Bulls +3.5 1Q $1.91 v Celtics = WINNER!
ADDING three more plays (making 4 in total) now that all lines/totals are available (including another unit on the Bulls 1Q given the line has moved slightly in our favour). Good luck and happy punting!
1u Magic v 76ers o218 $1.91 = LOSS
1u Bulls +4.5 1Q $1.87 v Celtics (this in addition to the 1u already placed yesterday at +3.5) = WINNER!
1u Blazers 1H Money Line $2.20 v Lakers = LOSS
14/11/2018 – Really disappointing day yesterday going 0-2-1. At huge value the Magic just couldn’t get it done in the 1st quarter and unfortunately (or fortunately) ended up tied with the Wizards after 1 for a Push. Complete and utter disappointment was the Grizz v Jazz game. Just didn’t see (neither did the number reflect) that it would turn into such a dower low scoring game. But we move on. Just the one suggested selection today. Hopefully can go 1 from 1 to get us back on track. Good luck and happy punting.
1u Nuggets v Rockets u215.5 $1.91 = WINNER!
13/11/2018 – Another 1-1 day yesterday which now (after the horrid 0-7 start to the season) takes the model to 7-5 for it’s last 12 suggested selections! 3 suggested selections today, one at big value and doubling down on another game!!! Fingers crossed. Good luck and happy punting.
1u Magic 1Q Money Line $2.70 v Wizards = PUSH
1u Grizzlies v Jazz o99 1H $1.91 = LOSS
1u Grizzlies v Jazz o202.5 $1.91 = LOSS
12/11/2018 – A great day on Saturday with the System going 3-0…. hopefully it’s a sign of things to come! Only two selections today but hopefully we can find a couple of winners. Good luck and happy punting.
1u Pacers +2.5 $1.87 v Rockets = LOSS
1u Lakers v Hawks u61.5 1Q $1.83 = WINNER!
10/11/2018 – Bricks! Bricks everywhere! That seemed to be all that Boston could throw in the 1st Quarter today for us – they shot 4 from 22 (18.2%) from the field. Unbelievably low. I could be wrong, but I dare say it has been a very very very long time since they shot less than 20% from the field in a quarter.
But we move on. Starting the season 3-11 now is hurting. I’m struggling knowing how well the System worked for me last year and how slow it has started this year. Trusting the numbers is hard, but I’m going to keep at it, I have full confidence it will turn and we will come out in front. Three suggested bets tomorrow. Good luck and happy punting.
1u Hornets +5.5 $1.92 v 76ers = WINNER!
1u Nets +9.5 $1.92 v Nuggets = WINNER!
1u Kings +2.5 $1.92 v Wolves = WINNER!
09/11/2018 – Another tiny loss on the day yesterday going 2-2 after the Heat and Spurs threw absolute bricks and the Mavs just couldn’t quite come back enough to cover the +9.5 line. They were down by as many as 26 in the 2nd quarter and 25 in the 3rd quarter and managed to get back to within 9 half way through the last quarter, but just couldn’t hold on and ended up falling by 15. The Pacers and 76ers played out a realatively low scoring 1st quarter for us and thanks to a huge 3 point jumper all but on the buzzer from Justin Holiday, the Bulls (+4 1Q) managed to only trail by 3 at quarter time. It could have been a worse day, but it certainly could have been better.
Small card of only 4 games today and only one suggested bet from the System. Good luck if you tail or fade. Happy punting.
1u Celtics -2.5 1Q $1.83 v Suns = LOSS
08/11/2018 – After the Nets (-0.5 1H vs Suns) finally got the System on the board for the 2018-2019 season yesterday, with 3.21 remaining in the 2nd quarter of the Blazers v Bucks game (o112.5 1H) and only 9 points needed, it looked like we were home and hosed to go 2-0 on the day. They then went on a run up to Half Time which resulted in ONLY 4 more points being scored as they combined for 1 from 10 from the floor and 1 from 2 from the Free Throw line. Unbelievable.
That aside, the System is off the mark for the year and hopefully can continue to build on that now. Happy punting!
1u Heat v Spurs o104.5 1H $1.87 = LOSS
1u Pacers v 76ers u55.5 1Q $1.91 = WINNER!
1u Bulls +4 1Q $1.87 v Pelicans = WINNER!
1u Mavericks +9.5 $1.91 v Jazz = LOSS
07/11/2018 – An 0 from 7 start to the season (albeit with a couple of close losses) for the system is disappointing to say the least. Feel that I obviously jumped the gun last week and tried to get stuck in without enough data, hopefully with most teams having now played 9 or 10 games, the data will start to balance out and the numbers will start to turn for us. Two plays today, let’s see how it goes, hopefully we can get on the board! Good luck.
1u Nets -0.5 1H $1.85 v Suns = WINNER!
1u Blazers v Bucks o112.5 1H $1.90 = LOSS
05/11/2018 – 0 from 6 on Thursday and Friday last week – just shows the importance of having enough data to run a successful model. With a couple more games into the system over the weekend, treading lightly this week but will see how we go. Just the one NBA play today. Good luck.
1u Knicks +4 1H $1.87 v Wizards = LOSS
02/11/2018 – slow start to the season for the system yesterday with both games missing by less than 6 points, hopefully can get on the board today. System has generated four suggested plays today, so fingers crossed for a bit of luck. Happy punting!
1u Clippers +2.5 1H $1.95 v 76ers = LOSS
1u Hawks v Kings u233.5 $1.95 = LOSS
1u Bucks +1.5 1H $1.87 v Celtics = LOSS
1u Blazers v Pelicans u116.5 1H $1.91 = LOSS
01/11/2018 – still limited data given most teams have only played 6 or 7 games but keen to get into it after the success this had last year. 2 small bets today, have both of these games finishing around the 230 total points – so keen to see how we go. Good luck.
1u Bulls v Nuggets o220 $1.87 = LOSS
1u Suns v Spurs o213.5 $1.91 = LOSS