Here comes Week 3!!

5945538_3_orig

All dates/times are AEST.  All lines, totals and prices correct at the time of posting.

Two weeks in now and already a few surprises being thrown up in the AAC.  Temple clearly the disappointment so far.  I had them being 2-0 and instead they sit 0-2 and staring down the barrel at going 0-3.  UCF and USF have both started 2-0 as expected but joining them are Cincinnati and Houston.

Week 3 sees another big card with all AAC teams playing out of conference match-ups.

UPDATED including games affected by Hurricane Florence.

Hopefully I can find a few winners this week and get things moving in the right direction!  Trying to be a bit more selective with selections…. but will see how that plays out for me!  Best of luck and happy punting!

 

SATURDAY 15th SEPTEMBER

9am Memphis v Georgia State:  After losing a tight one to Navy on the road last week, Memphis (1-1) return home to host Georgia State (1-1) in the first game involving an AAC team for Week 3.  Memphis were explosive in their first game of the season (at home) and I think they probably bounce back here against Georgia State who were blown out (41-7) in Week 2 by North Carolina State.  Memphis opened -22.5 point favourites but have already drifted to -27 ATS.  The total points has been set at 59 for this game.

I’m leaning Memphis -27 and Over 59, however no official prediction in this game for me.

UPDATE: After looking at this game again, and discussing in quite a bit of detail with @punter_problems, I’ve decided to play Memphis -27 (1.5u at $1.88) = WINNER!

 

SUNDAY 16th SEPTEMBER

2am Temple @ Maryland:  I know it’s only been two weeks, but Temple (0-2) have clearly been the biggest disappointment for me (in respect of AAC teams and my season predictions).  I t they would be 2-0 and instead they have started 0-2 and now travel to Maryland (2-0) who are -15 point favourites after upsetting Texas in Week 1 and blowing out Bowling Green (45-14) in Week 2.  From what I’ve read, Maryland were very solid against a flat Texas outfit in Week 1, however I feel that the +15 for Temple here is good value if Nutile can find his groove (which he will at some stage – fingers crossed it’s in this game!).  I think the number is slightly over inflated given Maryland’s win in Week 2 was against a very average Bowling Green team.  The game total has been set at 50 points.

I’m leaning Over 50 points here but my prediction for this game is Temple +15 (1u at $1.92) = WINNER!

 

2am UCF @ UNCGame canceled due to Hurricane Florence.

 

2am UConn v Rhode Island:  No preview or predictions as lines/totals were posted too late.

 

2.20am ECU @ Virginia Tech:  Game canceled due to Hurricane Florence.

 

3am Tulane @ UAB:  Tulane (1-1) are -3.5 point favourites ATS for their trip to face UAB (1-1) this week.  This is a match up of two teams who have potential to score, but also leak points!  Tulane are coming off a strong win (42-17) over Nicholl State.  UAB return home, where in Week 1 they thumped Savannah State 52-0, after losing 47-24 on the road in Week 2 to Coastal Carolina in what could be classified as a bit of an upset.  Total score has been set at 57 points for this game.

I feel that the market has been skewed off the back of UAB’s loss last week.  I think at home UAB probably win this.  I’m leaning Over 57 but my prediction for this game is UAB to win (1u at $2.55) = WINNER!!!!

 

5.30am USF @ Illinois:  USF (2-0) head on the road for the first time this year to face Illinois (2-0) after back to back home victories against Elon (34-14) and GT (49-38).  This will be the third consecutive game at home for Illinois who have defeated Kent (31-24) and Western Illinois (34-14) to open the season.  Illinois have started both of their games slowly and they will need to avoid that if they are any chance in this game.  I think USF will have too much fire power and will win and probably win comfortably.  USF opened -7.5 point favourites ATS, however this has moved significantly and they are now -10.5 point favourites.  The game total is currently set at 59 points.

I’m leaning Over 59 and USF -10.5, however no official prediction in this game for me as the uncertainty of a first road mach for USF and that line movement has me a little worried.  I probably would have been tempted at the -7.5, but happy to sit out at the -10.5.

 

5.30am SMU @ Michigan:  SMU (0-2) travel to 19th ranked Michigan (1-1) who are -34.5 point favourites ATS.  I think Michigan have a real opportunity to run up another score here in front of their home crowd after beating West Michigan 49-3 in Week 2.  SMU have struggled on both sides of the ball and although SMU started well, 16th ranked TCU had absolutely no problems beating them 42-12 in a wet old Week 2 match up.  Game total has been set at 56 points for this game.

I’m leaning Under 56 (I just can’t see SMU getting anything going in this one) but my prediction for this game is Michigan -34.5 (2u at $1.92). **This is my best bet for Week 3** = LOSS

 

5.30am Navy v Lehigh:  No preview or predictions as lines/totals were posted too late.

 

6.15am Houston @ Texas Tech:  Houston (2-0) travel to Texas Tech (1-1) for this Week 3 matchup which on paper, appears to have all of the makings of a real shoot out.  Both teams are averaging over 550 yards of offence per game.  Texas Tech are giving up 360+ yards per game whilst Houston are giving up nearly 500 per game.  The game total has been set at 69 points which reflects the thoughts that this could turn into a high scoring game.  I’m a little less convinced however.  Texas Tech had nearly 700 yards of offense against a hapless Lamar last week.  I think this one turns into more of an arm wrestle.  Texas Tech are slight favourites ($1.90 vs Houston $1.94) however I think Houston probably get the job done here.

Leaning Under 69 but my prediction for this game is Houston to win (1u at $1.94) = LOSS

 

9am Cincinnati v Alabama A&M:  No preview or predictions as lines/totals were posted too late.

 

9am Tulsa v Arkansas St: After travelling to Texas and pushing them all of the way (going down 28-21), Tulsa (1-1) return home to face Arkansas State (1-1) who are trying to pick up the pieces after being absolutely thrown around by the number 1 ranked team in the country, Alabama (Alabama won 57-7 after taking the foot off the pedal in the 2nd half  – they were leading 40-0 at HT).  Tulsa overcame a 1st quarter deficit at home in Week 1 to beat Central Arkansas 38-27.  Tulsa opened -1.5 point favourites in this game, however this has completely flipped with Arkansas State now slight favourites.  This game has a good chance of becoming quite a high scoring affair, as is reflected with the game score being set at 72 points.

I’m leaning Over 72 points, however my official prediction for this game is Tulsa to win (1u at $1.95), I think at home and with Arkansas State still reeling from their loss to Alabama, they can get the job done = LOSS

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s