Week 10!!

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All dates/times are AEST.  All lines, totals and prices correct at the time of posting.

Unbelievably Week 10 is already upon us!  Hopefully we can have a winning week!

Happy punting!

 

FRIDAY 2nd NOVEMBER

9.30am UCF v Temple:  UCF (7-0) just continue to roll and come into this game off the back of a relatively straight forward 37-10 victory over ECU last week, which is just what the doctor ordered after the hard fought 31-30 victory over Memphis a week earlier.  Temple (5-3) started the season slowly however are finding some momentum now and enter this game off a very good 24-17 OT victory against the number 20 ranked Cincinnati last week.  I have been holding off on this game as there has been talk this week that the UCF QB McKenzie Milton may have been out.  However it appears that he is in.  Strangely, even with the new that he is in, the line has moved in Temple’s favour (it was UCF -12.5 and has come all the way into -10.5).  Temple certainly will be up and about for this game and I expect it to be tight for a long way.  I’m wary of the mental and physical fatigue that an extended OT game would have had on Temple compared to a more routine game for UCF and expect they will just have a bit too much power late in the game.

My prediction for this game is UCF -11 (1u @ $1.90) = WINNER!

 

SUNDAY 4th NOVEMBER

2am ECU v Memphis:  Memphis (4-4) who have been very underwhelming for me this year, travel to ECU (2-5) for this early Sunday morning (Australian time) match up.  Whilst 4-4 on paper doesn’t sound bad, Memphis have struggled this season with three of their four wins having come against teams who have only had 1 or 2 wins on the season.  Their other victory was in Week 1 against Mercer who do now also have 4 wins on the season, however many would say have had a much easier draw.  Memphis still have a chance to finish with 6 or 7 wins on the season as I expect they move to 5 wins this weekend by beating ECU here.  They then get Tulsa (who are just junk on the road) at home next week.  Whilst they have had their road woes, Memphis travel to SMU in Week 12 for a winnable game before returning home for a very tough match up against a hot Houston team to close out the season.  With what is in front of them, I expect they will be looking to put the foot down on an ECU team which has had it’s own struggles this season.  Memphis are -13.5 point faves and the game total has been set at under/over 64.5 points.

I’m leaning Over 64.5 points but my official prediction is Memphis -13.5 (1u @ $1.90) = WINNER!

 

5.30am USF v Tulane:  USF (7-1) host a Tulane (3-5) team who is on the road for the 2nd consecutive week and 5th time this season.  They have lost 3 of their 4 road games so far this season with their only win when travelling coming last week where they just got home 24-17 over the lowly Tulsa – thanks only to a 10 points to nil 4th quarter.  USF return home (where they are 4-0 this season) after a bit of a surprise loss on the road last week 36-57 to Houston.  USF are -6.5 point faves and the game total has been set at 59 points.

I expect USF will look to tighten their defense up this week so I’m leaning Under 59, but my official prediction is USF -6.5 (2u @ $1.85).  *This is my best bet for Week 10* = Loss.

 

5.30am Cincinnati v Navy:  While we are on the topic of underwhelming… I had predicted Navy (who are currently 2-6) would be 6-2 at this point of the season.  They have struggled on the road (0-3) and have generally lacked momentum on offense and have leaked points on defense.  Now they must travel to Cincinnati (7-1) who are certainly the surprise packet of the AAC this year for me and who will be glad to be home after back to back road trips in which they went 1-1 – both games went to OT which could be a bit of a factor here.  Cincinnati are -14 point favourites and the game total has been set at under/over 49 points.

I’m actually leaning Navy +14 and Under 49 points in this one, as I think Cincinnati could have some fatigue and I just feel Navy will really want to keep it close, but no official prediction in this game for me.  I’m happy to sit this one out and see the final result.

 

9am Tulsa v UConn:  This has all of the fundamentals to be an ugly game between two 1 win teams.  My general rule is never bet games where two super star teams are playing and never bet games where two horrid teams are playing, because in both instances you never really know what you are going to get.  I’m going to stand by this rule here and I won’t be betting this game.  Tulsa (1-7) are -18 point faves and the total has been set at 58.5 points for this game.  UConn (1-7) have been bad this season and I can’t see them shooting the lights out here.

I’m leaning Tulsa -18 and maybe Under 58.5 (just not sure UConn will add enough points), but no official prediction in this game for me.

 

9am SMU v Houston:  Houston (7-1) who just seem to keep on rolling along at he moment travel to SMU (3-5) to close out Week 10 for the AAC teams.  On paper this has all of the makings of a high scoring shoot out. Houston are -15 point favourites and the game total being set at under/over 71.5 points, so it would appear that the bookies tend to agree.  With Houston averaging 50 points per game on offense, SMU giving up over 35 points per game and Houston themselves allowing over 30 points per game, the Over 71.5 certainly appears to be the play.  However, I’ve got some reservations.  Firstly, SMU are a little tighter on the defensive side of the ball at home with them only giving up an average of 28 points per game in their last 3 home games.  SMU have given up 40+ points 4 times this season, however 3 of them were in the first 3 weeks of the season and 3 of the 4 opposition who have put 40+ points on them have been Top 20 ranked teams.  Houston have been strong on the road averaging just over 46 points per game, however this is down slightly on their season average.  The biggest factor for me though, is Houston’s big 57-36 win last weekend over the 21st ranked team USF.  Houston would have been eyeing that off as a huge game (and they got up for it).  They will be riding a bit of a high coming out of that game, however how much will it have taken out of them and how much of a ‘let down’ will they go through this week being back on the road.  I’ve got no doubt the coaching staff will have them as prepared and focused as possible, however I’ve got reservations about this game.

I’m leaning Houston -15 and Under 71.5 but with so many questions and a bit of uncertainty I’m happy to sit this one out.  No official prediction in this game for me.

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