Week 11!

11

 All dates/times are AEST.  All lines, totals and prices correct at the time of posting.

Week 11 sees all 12 AAC teams in action in 6 Conference match ups.  With only 3 games remaining this season, while some teams will be fine tuning for Bowl games, some teams will already be looking towards next year.  Will be trying to tread carefully with this in mind, but hopefully we can still find a few winners this weekend!

Happy punting!

 

SUNDAY 11th NOVEMBER

3am UCF v Navy:  I seem to describe them the same way each week, but the ‘disappointing’ Navy (2-7) travel to face the undefeated and 12th ranked UCF (8-0) who now clearly have their eyes set on a Bowl game in a few weeks time.  Total points for this game has been set at Under/Over 63.5 and the line has been set at a whopping +/- 26 points with UCF obviously the favourites.

Call me crazy, but I actually have this as a bit of a danger game for UCF who are absolutely rolling (particularly at home) and Navy have been well below where they had hoped they would be this season.  I’m concerned however, that UCF may come in almost expecting to win and already have one eye on next week, where they are scheduled to host Cincinnati in what could see the winner take out the AAC East Conference.

I’m leaning Under 63.5 as I think UCF could enter this game just a couple of percent off and possibly not be as polished on offense as they have been.  Realistically, UCF should do an absolute job on Navy here.  My gut tells me that Navy do have a shot though, as I feel Navy they play this as their season ‘Final’ but I just can’t bring myself to pull the trigger, even with a huge +26 points on offer.

No official prediction in this game for me.

 

3am UConn v SMU:  After upsetting number 17 ranked Houston last week, SMU (4-5) go on the road this week to face a UConn (1-8) team who are looking to break a 6 game losing streak.  I just can’t see it happening here though.  The game total has been sent at Under/Over 66 points and the line has been set at +/- 18.5 points with SMU the clear favourites.

You could try and make an argument that SMU might have a bit of a let down after such a great win last week and having to go on the road this week, but UConn have been disappointing all year and I just can’t see them improving enough to get the win here.

I’m leaning Under 66 (as I can’t see UConn scoring enough against SMU to help the total) but my official prediction is SMU -18.5 (1.5u @ $1.91).  I think UConn have all but switched off for the season and think SMU will want to keep rolling and show last week wasn’t a blue moon event!

 

3am Memphis v Tulsa:  It took 2 Henderson TD’s in the 4th quarter but Memphis (5-4) managed to defeat ECU 59-41 last week and will be looking forward to returning home for this match up against Tulsa (2-7).  Tulsa snapped a 7 game losing streak last week, however, it was at home and it was against the dismal UConn.  Tulsa have only won 3 of their last 11 matches on the road dating back to the start of last season.  I can’t see them adding to that total here.  Memphis are 4-1 at home this season and whilst their opposition hasn’t been 1st Class (other than UCF who has been their only home loss this season 31-30), they have managed to outscore opposition 262 to 116 in their 5 home games.  They have been brutal on offense and have shown they don’t want to take their foot off the pedal in front of their home crowd once they get rolling.  Tulsa on the other hand are 0-4 on the road and have been outscored 64 – 123 in those matches.

The total points for this game has been set at Under/Over 65.5 points and Memphis are favourites with the line set at +/- 15.

I’m leaning Over 65.5 but I feel we are getting a good number here on Memphis solely because of Tulsa’s win last week.  I don’t think this form will stack up on the road against a Memphis team who is proven to be aggressive at home.  My official prediction for this game is Memphis -15 (1u @ $1.91).

 

7am Tulane v ECU:  Tulane (4-5) return home after back to back road trips and do so on a bit of a roll.  They are going for 3 wins in a row for the first time this season after beating Tulsa (24-17) then really putting USF to the sword last week (41-15).  ECU (2-6) on the other hand are looking to snap a 4 game losing streak and for their first road victory this year (they are 0-2 on the road after the game against VT was cancelled earlier in the season).  Tulane are 2-2 at home this season, but feel that after their back to back wins on the road, they will be looking to put on a show this weekend for their home crowd.  The total points has been set at Under/Over 55 and the line has been set at +/- 13.5 with the home team favourites.

I really like both the Over and Tulane -13.5 in this one.  I think Tulane will be looking to put on an offensive show against an ECU team who has shown they can leak points.  Tulane aren’t rock solid on defense either however, so think ECU can get enough to push the total Over.

For the first time this season I’m doubling down and having two bets on the same game.  My official predictions for this game are Tulane -13.5 (1u @ $1.95) and Over 55 (2u @ $1.91).  *This is my Best Bet of Week 11*

 

10am Houston v Temple:  After having their 5 game winning streak snapped last week by SMU, Houston (7-2) return home to host Temple (5-4) who had a 3 game winning streak snapped last week by UCF.  Temple were a bit inconsistent early in the season, but prior to last weekends loss to UCF had found their grove with a 49-6 victory over ECU, a 24-17 victory over Navy and a huge 24-17 victory over Cincinnati.  With both teams looking to get back into the winners list, this has the makings of an old fashion shoot out!  The game total has been set at Under/Over 69.5 points and Houston are slight favourites with the line set at +/- 4.5 points.

Houston have certainly been solid this season (and probably flown under the radar for many people to a degree), however I feel the form of Temple over the last month have them right in the mix here.

I’m leaning Temple +4.5, however with both teams offensive power and also ability to leak points, my official prediction for this game is Over 69.5 (1u @ $1.91).

 

10am Cincinnati v USF:  The final game of the weekend involving AAC teams sees USF (7-2) travel to take on Cincinnati (8-1) in what on paper, may appear like the game of the weekend (for games involving AAC teams) based on them being 1 and 2 loss teams.  However, when I look a bit deeper, it’s pretty obvious to me that USF have had a much softer schedule and Cincinnati are deservedly fairly strong favourites.  The line has been set at +/- 14 points (Cincinnati favourites) and the game total Under/Over 55.5 points.

USF were 7-0 a couple of weeks ago and appeared to be flying.  They have fallen in consecutive games to Houston (57-36) and Tulane (41-15).  In hindsight, whilst you can only beat the teams in front of you, the first 7 games of the season were quite clearly ‘easier’ match ups for USF compared with the stretch they are in the middle of now.

Cincinnati on the other hand, have only lost one game this season (a tight one on the road to Temple 24-17) and appear to be going from strength to strength each week.  They completely shut Navy out last week routing them 42-0 and I expect they could look to do a very similar thing this week to USF.  Similar to my concern for UCF this weekend, my one concern for Cincinnati is if they come into this game ‘expecting’ to win and with an eye on the blockbuster match up next week with UCF.  I have less concerns with Cincinnati having a down week (compared with my concerns with UCF this week) and think they get the job done here and convincingly.

I’m leaning Under 55.5 however my official prediction for this game is Cincinnati -14 (1.5u @ $1.91).

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